The second quarter of 2025 is proving to be a pressure cooker for global supply chains. A volatile mix of tariffs, reclassifications, and shifting trade alliances is forcing U.S. shippers, importers, and logistics providers to adapt in real time.
From White House deliberations over tariff rollbacks to upcoming changes in less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping classifications, this is not a season for passive planning. For many, the question isn’t whether change is coming; it’s whether their systems, data, and partners can keep up.
The decisions made right now will shape how goods move for the rest of the year. This edition of our newsletter tells a story of where the freight economy is bending — and, in some cases, starting to break. Continue reading to learn all about it.
The Trump administration reportedly is considering a dramatic reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports to de-escalate trade tensions that have shaken global markets and strained U.S.-China relations.
While President Trump has not finalized a decision, reports suggest a tiered approach, possibly reducing tariffs to 50-65% overall, with a 35% rate for goods not considered a national security threat and a minimum rate of 100% for more strategic items. This mirrors a bill introduced by the House Committee on China last year and reflects growing recognition of the economic costs of prolonged tariff escalation.
China has cautiously welcomed the signal, saying it remains open to talks but will not engage “under duress.” Despite reciprocal tariff hikes in recent months, both governments appear to be reassessing their long-term strategies.
Freight volumes across U.S. supply chains are beginning to contract as the Trump administration’s tariff campaign rattles planning cycles and reshapes sourcing behavior. Truckload, air, intermodal, and ocean freight volumes are all projected to fall through the second half of 2025.
Trans-Pacific spot rates have collapsed, down 61% to $2,050 per FEU on West Coast lanes and 53.7% to $3,100 per FEU on the East Coast. Booking cancellations are surging, with some ships leaving Asia half-empty. Retailers like Amazon and Five Below have already paused orders from China, Vietnam, and Thailand. U.S. imports surged 15.3% in 2024, but forecasts now predict a 20-27% plunge through summer, wiping out last year’s gains.
Exporters, especially in agriculture and forestry, are also struggling under 125% retaliatory tariffs from China.
The sharp expansion of U.S. tariffs is creating fertile ground for customs fraud across the supply chain, according to legal experts.
As importers scramble to absorb rising costs, a significant uptick in False Claims Act (FCA) cases is expected, targeting underreported shipments, misclassified goods, and false country-of-origin declarations. Importers and customs brokers face the greatest exposure, but carriers are also advised to distance themselves from questionable partners.
While direct liability is rare, the reputational risk and likelihood of subpoenaed records are real.
With sweeping changes to the U.S. LTL classification system set to take effect on July 19, carriers and shippers are warning of cost increases and disruption for those that fail to prepare. The National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) is shifting more than 2,000 product classes toward density-based pricing, but most shippers lack accurate data on weight, dimensions, and item classifications.
In a recent webcast hosted by the Journal of Commerce, Pitt Ohio’s Shawn Galloway said many bills of lading (BOLs) lack reliable NMFC information, making cost projections almost impossible. With tight freight demand, some shippers are delaying engagement. But that’s a mistake, warned Galloway. Companies will face reweighs, inspections, and likely invoice revisions without preparation.
While the short-term impact of tariff changes, notably the repeal of Section 321, will hurt many e-commerce businesses, it could ultimately level the playing field for U.S.-based sellers, driving higher margins and improved profitability.
Aaron Rubin, CEO of warehouse management firm ShipHero, estimated that a third of all Amazon merchandise originates from Chinese sellers, many of which operate with nonresident importer (NRI) status or under shell U.S. companies. This would create a future in which U.S. brands, if they can withstand the transition, will benefit from less price competition, better enforcement, and greater pricing power.
“Survival,” Rubin emphasized, “is the bridge to profitability.”
We understand that fluctuating tariffs have created an unstable environment. However, we can promise you a few things amid this turbulent period. When you call, we answer. No matter the hour. We respond when you have urgent shipping needs. No matter the challenge.
When you work with VCPB, you can always count on:
VCPB Transportation
600 Meadowlands Pkwy Secaucus, NJ 07094
(201) 770-0111
