Truckload Uncertainty, Visa Freeze, and Freight Class Shifts

From the ongoing fallout of tariff threats to a visa freeze for foreign commercial truck drivers, freight operators are navigating uncertainty on multiple fronts. Meanwhile, spot rate growth has cooled, and Class 8 truck buyers are delaying purchasing decisions. On the LTL front, the largest freight classification overhaul in 90 years is seeing muted impact on pricing. 

Tariff Anxiety Fuels Consumer Inflation Sensitivity

Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Advisory Group, warns that consumers remain hypersensitive to any price increases tied to tariffs. Lingering inflation trauma from 2021-2022 continues to depress consumer confidence, now still below pre-COVID levels. 

With trade talks extended another 90 days and supply chain responses still unclear, shoppers are bracing for more cost-of-living hits. “There is no patience for further increases,” Boockvar said, adding that tariffs — regardless of intent — are perceived as another inflation trigger in an economy still struggling to find equilibrium.

Truckload Spot Rate Growth Slows  

RXO’s Q2 The Curve report shows spot rates rising 6.5%, but down from 9.1% in Q1. Analysts cite tightening capacity and weak demand as contributing to a slow recovery. 

RXO notes that contract and spot rates remain under pressure, and market rebalancing is likely — but delayed. TD Cowen’s Jason Seidl sees only modest improvements in contractual renewals. 

NMFC Reclassification Draws Little Pushback

Despite fears of disruption, the July 19 National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC) overhaul has not triggered widespread pricing shifts. The Producer Price Index for long-distance LTL rose 1.7% in July and is now 15% above its 2023 level, but most increases are unrelated to the freight classification changes.  

FedEx Freight did delay enforcement to December, while carriers like Saia were well prepared for the classification changes and moved forward using dimensioners. Smaller shippers may see higher costs, but complaints have been minimal. Pitt Ohio and AFS Logistics likened the rollout to a “Y2K moment” — feared but ultimately no big deal. 

Truck Sales Slip but Shoppers Still Browsing Online

Retail sales of Class 8 trucks dipped in July, led by a 26.8% decline at Freightliner. Despite this, Mack Trucks posted a 28.7% gain. Market watchers point to delayed purchasing cycles rather than lost demand. Commercial Truck Trader reported a 24% increase in sleeper truck page views, with Peterbilt and Kenworth generating the most engagement. 

Buyers are researching more, taking longer to commit, and extending truck life cycles. Freight softness, cautious construction activity, and lingering trade tensions are all contributing to the slowdown, according to Mack Trucks President Jonathan Randall.

Visa Freeze for Foreign Truck Drivers Sparks Safety, Labor Debate

The Trump administration has paused the issuance of commercial driver visas, citing public safety and domestic job protection. The move follows a fatal Florida truck crash involving a foreign-born driver and targets programs like H-2B and EB-3. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the policy protects American truckers from wage pressure and safety risks. 

Critics argue it could intensify labor shortages in long-haul sectors, where U.S. recruitment already struggles. The FMCSA has opened an investigation into the carrier involved in the crash, signaling deeper scrutiny on both foreign driver pathways and carrier vetting practices.

Ship With Confidence With VCBP Transportation

We understand that tariffs and policy shifts have created an unstable environment. However, we can promise you a few things during this turbulent period. When you call, we answer — no matter the hour. We respond when you have urgent shipping needs — no matter the challenge. 

When you work with VCPB, you can always count on:

• Support from start to finish.
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