Tariff uncertainty, regulatory clampdowns, and economic volatility are reshaping freight flows and fleet operations. Retail demand is holding steady in key categories like apparel and e-commerce. But container volumes are softening, and Class 8 truck sales have dropped to historic lows.
Employment in trucking has reached its lowest level since mid-2021, driven in part by tighter CDL enforcement policies. Meanwhile, the freight market teeters on the edge, with decision-makers split on whether conditions reflect a true recession or just a painful reset.
According to the National Retail Federation, import cargo volumes through major U.S. ports are trending lower as we head into 2026. October saw 2.07 million TEUs, down 7.9% year over year, with November and December expected to fall even further to 1.91 million TEUs (-11.6%) and 1.86 million TEUs (-12.7%), respectively.
These drops follow early front-loading by retailers trying to dodge rising tariffs and potential port disruptions. The trade outlook remains murky, with court challenges surrounding tariff legality adding more uncertainty. Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates noted that container rates are already falling due to soft demand.
Still, U.S. holiday retail sales are forecast to exceed $1 trillion, up 3.7% to 4.2% from 2024. Despite this, early 2026 container forecasts indicate continued contraction in January (-10.3%), February (-8.5%), March (-16.8%), and April (-10.9%).
U.S. Class 8 truck sales dropped 36.5% year over year in November, totaling just 12,479 units, which is the weakest November since 2009. Freightliner’s sales were down 41.8%, followed by steep losses at International (-53.1%), Peterbilt (-33.7%), and Kenworth (-36.4%). Year-to-date sales are off 13.6%, with the only gain recorded in June.
ACT Research’s Steve Tam attributes the decline to soft freight volumes, rising costs, and cautious capital investments by fleets. He anticipated a 20% December rebound, typical for year end, but warned that market sentiment remains fragile. Mack Trucks’ Jonathan Randall and Volvo Trucks’ Magnus Koeck both cited high costs, weak demand, and regulatory pressures as drivers of extended replacement cycles and fleet downsizing.
CNBC’s latest Supply Chain Survey shows a split picture heading into 2026. Roughly 44% of respondents reported higher warehouse outflows year over year, led by promotional goods, housewares, and apparel. E-commerce also saw a 53% volume jump. However, the luxury and furniture categories lagged.
Despite a U.S.-China tariff truce in October, freight volumes and replenishment orders did not surge. Freight remains uneven: 42% reported Q4 volumes were flat, and 24% reported they were down. Nevertheless, sourcing shifts toward Southeast Asia and Latin America continue, with nearshoring to Mexico gaining traction.
The federal crackdown on non-domiciled CDL holders is intensifying the divide within U.S. trucking. Industry voices like Reliance Partners’ Thom Albrecht and Genlogs’ Ryan Joyce estimate that 2-3% of current truckload capacity is tied to questionable or illegal operations, including cross-border cabotage and “chameleon carriers.” They anticipate increased scrutiny post-holiday.
Others argue that enforcement alone won’t spur rate hikes unless demand recovers. Michigan State’s Jason Miller and former Capital City Trucking owner Cliff Bates noted the difficulty of enforcement and the limited economic tailwinds to absorb sudden labor losses. Housing permits and fracking remain weak, muting the broader capacity shift.
Employment in truck transportation fell to 1,509,600 jobs in November, the lowest since June 2021 and down 13,800 from July. The drop coincides with the intensified crackdowns on non-English-speaking drivers and on non-domiciled CDL renewals. Meanwhile, trucking wages hit an all-time high of $31.40 per hour in October, but higher pay hasn’t stopped the broader retreat from the freight labor market. Arrive Logistics’ David Spencer sees this as a harbinger of 2026 volatility, with reduced capacity and more spot rate swings.
The freight world may be unstable. But we can promise you a few things during this period. When you call, we answer. No matter the hour. We respond when you have urgent shipping needs. No matter the challenge.
When you work with VCPB, you can always count on:
VCPB Transportation
600 Meadowlands Pkwy Secaucus, NJ 07094
(201) 770-0111
