It’s been clear for a while that carrier exits and regulatory shifts are reducing the available driver pool. However, the recent severe winter weather exposed how little buffer remains in the trucking industry. Meanwhile, tariff-related front-loading has distorted trade flows, pulling demand forward and leaving softer volumes behind. Inventory costs and transportation prices are rising even as consumer demand shows strain.
In this edition of our newsletter, we review the key stories shaping the freight landscape, including storm-driven spikes, LTL carrier positioning, tightening truckload capacity, industrial signals influencing flatbed markets, and the global “double squeeze” facing container shipping.
Disruptive winter weather across large parts of the U.S. triggered a sharp spike in spot truckload pricing, underscoring how tight the market has become. Spot load posts jumped 40% week over week following snow and ice disruptions. Dry van spot rates rose 11 cents, the largest seven-day gain in more than three years. Temperature-controlled rates climbed 15 cents as shippers sought freeze protection during frigid conditions.
Analysts compared the impact to the February 2021 ice storms. But the difference today is in the level of excess capacity. There is less buffer in the system, so weather shocks translate more quickly into pricing pressure.
The fourth-quarter Freight Payment Index from U.S. Bank confirms that the freight cycle may be turning, even if volumes remain muted. Shipments rose 1.5% from the third quarter but remained 4.9% below the same period in 2024. Spending, however, climbed 4.6% sequentially and 5.2% year over year — the first annual increase in three years and the highest level since early 2024.
The widening gap between spending and shipments suggests shippers are paying more to move only a little bit more freight. And capacity contraction is central to the shift. Spot rates increased 10 cents per mile quarter over quarter, while contract rates also advanced. Fuel costs declined, indicating that tighter truck availability, rather than higher energy costs, drove the higher spend.
January’s ISM reading of 52.6% matters more for what follows than for the headline itself. New orders drive inbound raw materials and outbound finished goods. They create freight cycles that repeat through plants and distribution centers. After a year in which manufacturing weighed on truckload demand, even modest expansion changes carrier expectations around lane density and tender volumes.
Still, factory employment remains cautious. Manufacturers appear to be relying on existing capacity rather than preparing for broad production acceleration. That often translates into uneven freight bursts tied to restocking rather than sustained growth.
Global GDP forecasts of 3.3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027 suggest stability. However, freight volumes tell a more cautious story. Sea-Intelligence analysis argues that 2025’s tariff-driven front-loading inflated trade values while masking weaker physical shipment volumes. Trade projections measured by monetary value, particularly from technology exports, may not reflect container throughput.
Ocean carriers face excess vessel supply. As ships return to the shorter Red Sea route, fewer vessels are required than during diversions around the Horn of Africa. Overcapacity has pressured rates. One major carrier reported a 23% fourth-quarter rate decline across routes, a $153 million loss in its shipping division, and 1,000 job cuts.
Old Dominion Freight Line closed the fourth quarter of 2025 with softer results, but the company sees improving conditions ahead. Revenue declined 5.7% year over year to nearly $1.3 billion, driven by a 10.7% drop in LTL shipping tons per day. However, revenue per hundredweight increased 5.6%, signaling disciplined pricing even in a weaker freight environment.
The company’s outlook hinges on manufacturing. The ISM Manufacturing Index climbed to 52.6 in January from 47.9 in December, ending a 26-month stretch below expansion territory. Industrial freight, which typically moves through LTL networks due to its higher density, could benefit if order volumes continue to improve.
We understand that tariffs and trade wars have created an unstable environment. However, we can promise you a few things amid this turbulent period. When you call, we answer. No matter the hour. We respond when you have urgent shipping needs. No matter the challenge.
When you work with VCPB, you can always count on:
VCPB Transportation
600 Meadowlands Pkwy Secaucus, NJ 07094
(201) 770-0111
