As 2025 drew to a close, there was speculation about a long-awaited rebound, as spot truckload rates were surging. But analysts urged caution, pointing to short-lived volatility and weak industrial fundamentals. Meanwhile, less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers are limiting terminal capacity and dialing back aggressive pricing as demand thins across their networks.
Pressure from Trump-era tariffs continues to ripple through supply chains across the country. While awaiting the Supreme Court’s decision on the Trump tariffs, companies are laying off staff, shutting down facilities, and freezing investments. Across e-commerce, food, furniture, and parcel logistics, job losses have surpassed 2,200 in just a few weeks.
In this edition of our newsletter, we explore critical developments in trucking and trade.
The national average of U.S. truckload rates rose to $2.46 per mile, a 9.1% year-over-year increase. But it was largely driven by severe winter weather in the Midwest and Northeast. Analysts have cautioned that the hike may be short-lived unless elevated rates persist into mid-February.
Legal battles over tariffs and non-domiciled CDL cancellations are threatening to disrupt capacity. And economists have warned of potential volatility ahead. Sudden policy changes can spark surges or further demand contraction.
LTL carriers are carefully managing spare capacity in 2026 and still adjusting to the aftermath of Yellow’s 2023 bankruptcy. Some are maintaining up to 30% excess capacity to maintain fluidity, even as overall sector capacity remains 6% below pre-Yellow levels.
While rates dipped slightly in September, they remained 9.9% above 2024 levels. FedEx Freight’s upcoming spin-off and hopes of a manufacturing rebound may shift momentum, but for now, some terminals are being mothballed. With LTL pricing flattening and demand weakening, the sector’s resilience may hinge on whether interest and tax cuts can reignite consumer and industrial activity.
More than 2,200 logistics, manufacturing, and supply chain workers across the U.S. have been impacted by a wave of layoffs, facility shutdowns, and bankruptcies at the start of 2026. RailCrew Xpress lost a key CSX contract, prompting over 400 job cuts. Major disruptions also hit AVI Food Systems, Packaging Corporation of America, and Kroehler Furniture, with the latter tied to bankruptcy.
E-commerce-linked firms such as I Squared Logistics, FlexShopper, and Food52 collapsed due to debt, inventory issues, or contract exits. FedEx and UPS trimmed operations amid restructuring, while companies like ADM and Post Consumer Brands cut manufacturing capacity.
Starting in February, U.S. Customs will shift all tariff refund payments to an electronic-only system. That will bring an end to paper checks except in limited cases. The move aligns with a federal push to digitize disbursements and follows an executive order signed by President Trump in 2025.
This change comes as importers await the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). If overturned, importers could claim refunds worth tens of billions, but the process will be slow and audit-heavy.
Trump-era IEEPA tariffs have become a financial drag on U.S. supply chains, with 65% of supply chain professionals reporting cost increases of at least 10-15%, according to an ASCM-CNBC survey. Thirty-two percent now report layoffs, while 34% have seen even higher cost surges. Businesses say even if the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs, refunds won’t recover time lost to paperwork or capital tied up in customs bonds.
Companies like Lalo have locked away hundreds of thousands of dollars as collateral, while rising costs and short planning horizons have stifled investment. ASCM’s Abe Eshkenazi warns that the damage is operational, not just legal, which is driving uncertainty, lost productivity, and a patchwork of hiring freezes and restructuring across the sector.
The freight world may be unstable. But we can promise you a few things during this period. When you call, we answer. No matter the hour. We respond when you have urgent shipping needs. No matter the challenge.
When you work with VCPB, you can always count on:
VCPB Transportation
600 Meadowlands Pkwy Secaucus, NJ 07094
(201) 770-0111
