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US Supply Chains Await Lukewarm Holiday Season

Published on
September 25, 2025
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By
VCPB

The Port of Los Angeles posted record-breaking summer volumes but faces policy headwinds and a cooling economy. In agriculture, the collapse of U.S. soybean exports to China threatens to ripple through rail and port operations. Meanwhile, FedEx Freight and its competitors are under pricing pressure as truckload carriers absorb more shipments. And finally, the closure of California’s TGS Transportation and GSC Enterprises underscores the strain of prolonged weak demand. 

Taken together, these stories portray an industry at an inflection point, balancing resilience against rising risks. Read on as we explore the monthly highlights of the supply chain world in this edition of the VCPB newsletter. 

FedEx Freight Battles Market Pressures

FedEx Freight, the largest U.S. less-than-truckload (LTL) provider, is losing shipments to the lower-priced truckload sector due to the prolonged freight downturn. In its fiscal quarter ending August 31, daily LTL shipments dropped 2.2% to 90,012, with revenue slipping 3.1% year over year to $2.3 billion

Operating margin narrowed to 16% from 18.8% a year earlier, pressured by softness in U.S. manufacturing and a glut of truckload capacity. While the LTL Producer Price Index rose 10.5% in August, truckload rates fell 0.5%, widening the pricing gap. Competitors such as Old Dominion, XPO, and Saia also reported volume declines. 

Port of LA Braces for Slower Finish to 2025

The Port of Los Angeles handled 958,355 TEUs in August, nearly matching last year’s record, with July-August volumes totaling close to 2 million containers, which is the strongest two-month period ever for a Western Hemisphere port, according to Executive Director Gene Seroka. Imports reached 504,514 TEUs (down 1% year over year), while exports rose 5% to 127,379 TEUs

Despite strong summer momentum, Seroka warned of softer volumes ahead, as early holiday imports, slowing job growth, and inflation weigh on demand. New ship fees targeting Chinese-owned vessels, estimated at $175 to $300 per container, could further shift cargo flows. Meanwhile, the trucking industry’s prolonged recession has shuttered drayage providers like TGS Logistics and GSC Logistics.

China’s Soybean Pullback Threatens Ag Supply Chains

China’s near total halt of U.S. soybean imports for the 2025-26 crop year is reverberating across the supply chain, from Midwest farms to ports and railroads. The U.S. shipped $12.8 billion in soybeans to China in 2024, accounting for approximately 25% of total exports. But tariffs of roughly 34% have shifted demand to Brazil and Argentina

“It really imposes hardship on the freight rail industry and other transportation modes as well,” said Mike Steenhoek of the Soy Transportation Coalition. With 80% of U.S. soybean exports typically shipped between September and February, the absence of Chinese orders could cut jobs across rail yards, ports, and warehouses, while adding uncertainty for farmers already facing peak harvest.

UPS Adds Surcharges Ahead of Peak Shipping Season

UPS will impose temporary surcharges from late September through mid-January 2026, affecting both imports and exports. Fees include 23 cents per pound for shipments from Europe to the U.S., 47 cents per pound for shipments from India, and 52 cents per Canadian residential package. Outbound U.S. shipments will incur surcharges of 20 cents to 50 cents per pound, depending on the service, with additional fees for packages destined to Canada and Mexico. 

The surcharges, layered on top of UPS’ fuel charges, coincide with the critical holiday shipping window. CEO Carol Tomé noted that U.S.-China volumes dropped 35% in May and June due to tariffs, which strained international margins, although the new fees exclude China. FedEx has also rolled out temporary surcharges with varying timelines and rates.

California Trucking Closures Highlight Industry Fragility

California’s TGS Transportation and GSC Enterprises, both longtime drayage providers, collapsed this summer under the weight of a three-year freight slump, intensifying concerns over the industry’s resilience. TGS, founded in 1985 with a 150-truck fleet, shut down despite efforts to cut costs, automate, and streamline operations

Its closure follows GSC’s July bankruptcy, which disrupted service at the Port of Oakland. Analysts have noted that while tens of thousands of small operators have exited the market, there is still excess trucking capacity, which continues to keep rates low. Rising costs for labor, insurance, and equipment intensify the strain on carriers, with California’s strict employment and emissions laws adding unique burdens.

Leverage VCPB to Ride Out Market Uncertainties

At VCPB Transportation, we understand that tariffs have created an unstable environment. However, we can promise you a few things amid this turbulent period. When you call, we answer. No matter the hour. We respond when you have urgent shipping needs. No matter the challenge. 

When you work with VCPB, you can always count on:

  • Support from start to finish.
  • Service customized to your needs.
  • Solutions based on years of experience.

Start shipping today.

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