The conflict in the Middle East is driving up fuel surcharges for ocean, air, and trucking. But fuel isn’t the only pressure point. In the U.S., truckload shippers are changing how they draft contracts because the government is cracking down on non-domiciled CDL holders, and strategic cargo theft is on the rise.
The legal battle over IEEPA tariff refunds is heating up, with some 300,000 shippers possibly owed $175 billion. Meanwhile, the picture of truckload capacity is changing in small but important ways, and in Mexico, the truck manufacturing industry is in a deep slump that is similar to the slowdown in freight across North America.
Continue reading to find out the latest development shaping the freight world.
The average price of diesel on the highway in the U.S. rose by 25% in the week ending March 9, reaching a record high of $4.859 per gallon. Avery Vise, an analyst at FTR Transportation Intelligence, says that this was the biggest weekly rise in both price and percentage terms since tracking began in 1994.
The spike comes after attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran that started on February 28. These attacks have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and cut off air cargo hubs in the Middle East that handle more than 20% of freight between Asia and Europe. By March 6, the price of jet fuel in Europe had gone up by 80%. In Singapore, the price of bunker fuel rose from $485.50 a month earlier to $1,116 per metric ton.
Shippers in the U.S. are trying to figure out how to address the federal crackdown on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) and English-language proficiency requirements as they negotiate truckload contracts for 2026.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings says some shippers are moving freight from brokers that don’t own assets to carriers that do. Marc Blubaugh, an attorney at Benesch, Friedlander, Colan & Aronoff, told the Journal of Commerce that his clients are divided into two groups: some are adding specific compliance clauses to contracts, while others believe their current legal obligations are sufficient.
Following the Supreme Court’s ruling that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were not legal, trade lawyers told CNBC that the U.S. Court of International Trade has received about 2,000 refund requests. They think that about 300,000 shippers have paid the duties now deemed illegal. The total amount of possible refunds could reach $175 billion.
President Trump said the refund process could take years, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the possible payouts “the ultimate corporate welfare.” The plaintiffs want the court to force the government to issue administrative orders for quick repayment with interest.
The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index (TCI) rose from 72.4% in the third quarter to 73.5% in the fourth quarter. This means that, as a group, large publicly owned carriers had 1.5% more capacity. However, don’t take that as a sign that they are in a hurry to add trucks. The Q4 number remains the second lowest since Q4 2013, and the index has fallen significantly from its 93.2% high in Q2 2022.
Most of the new trucks went to dedicated and specialized services, not the usual one-way truckload. For example, Derek Leathers, the CEO of Werner Enterprises, said that the company is restructuring its one-way business to focus on expedited, cross-border Mexico, and engineered freight. Werner cut its one-way truck count by 13.8% compared to the previous year.
According to INEGI data, Mexico’s heavy-vehicle industry saw big drops in February compared to the same month last year. Production fell 49.1% to 6,974 units, and exports fell 32% to 7,849 units. Sales at U.S. dealerships fell 38.9% to 2,303 units. Compared with the same period last year, production was down 50.5%, and exports were down 42.6% for the first two months of 2026.
Cristina Vázquez from AMDA said that the Mexican market has been declining for 14 consecutive months, and fixed gross investment in machinery and equipment has been negative for more than a year. The U.S. still accounts for 91.3% of Mexico’s heavy-vehicle exports, suggesting the decline is closely tied to the North American freight cycle.
We understand that tariffs and trade wars have created an unstable environment. However, we can promise you a few things amid this turbulent period. When you call, we answer. No matter the hour. We respond when you have urgent shipping needs. No matter the challenge.
When you work with VCPB, you can always count on:
VCPB Transportation
600 Meadowlands Pkwy Secaucus, NJ 07094
(201) 770-0111
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