Moving freight is getting more expensive in the fourth quarter. LTL rates have hit a new high, truckload contract rates keep rising, and diesel volatility has jumped to the top of the industry’s concern list. Carriers are responding with higher driver pay, which is surprising given how long the industry spent scraping the bottom on rates.
In other news, retailers say the long, stretched-out peak shipping season is finally winding down, which could lead to falling volumes and, ergo, falling freight rates. That said, the general prediction for rates continues to stay steady, with shippers being asked to expect plateauing prices through year-end, even as import volumes cool.
Cass Information Systems’ September report shows truckload linehaul rates up 10% year over year, the highest absolute reading in four years, while freight shipments grew for a second straight month after a 42-month stretch of declines. Total freight spending jumped even faster, helped along by fuel.
As Cass put it, “Even as spot rates slow with modest sequential declines, the much larger contract market is still adjusting higher.” Strict regulatory enforcement continues to remove noncompliant capacity — the same dynamic behind the tightening that we have observed since August.
Median pay for irregular-route truckload drivers rose 8.3% to $73,639 in 2025 compared with 2023, while dedicated-route drivers saw a smaller gain, according to the American Trucking Associations 2026 Driver Compensation Study.
And most of the 130-plus fleets surveyed planned to raise pay this year.
“Driver pay continued to move higher even as carriers faced one of the longest and most difficult freight downturns in recent memory,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello.
But the picture isn’t uniformly rosy. Median earnings for leased-on independent contractors and LTL linehaul drivers were lower in 2025 than in the 2023 study, although ATA noted that different carrier groups were surveyed in each period. Still, several carriers have announced rate-per-mile increases this year, suggesting fleets are competing more aggressively for qualified drivers.
After an unusually long stretch of elevated volumes through the summer and early fall, the National Retail Federation says the peak shipping season for U.S. container imports is winding down. The latest Global Port Tracker, produced with Hackett Associates, shows August as the busiest month of 2026 at about 2.3 million TEUs, replacing September as the expected peak. Imports are expected to ease through the rest of the year.
Most holiday merchandise has already arrived. Even with fluctuations in final data, the busiest part of the year has likely passed, given the early peak and the stretch through summer and early fall. Shipments for the balance of the year will be driven by replenishment and preparation for early 2027.
Less-than-truckload rates reached a record in the third quarter and are projected to finish the year even higher, according to the TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index. LTL rates are on track to end 2026 more than 80% above where they stood in January 2018, with high diesel prices and strong “carrier pricing power” driving the climb.
Fuel is a big part of the story, as diesel prices were up roughly 68% year over year in September, pushing fuel surcharges sharply higher. It's one more sign that the rate climb we first covered in our July newsletter has staying power.
The American Transportation Research Institute’s annual survey of industry stakeholders ranked volatile diesel prices as the No. 1 concern in 2026, up from 18th place last year. Fuel has topped the list only four times in the survey’s 22-year history, and for the first time, drivers themselves put it at the top.
As expected, fuel pricing pressure puts carriers’ profitability in jeopardy, with operating margins in both the truckload and refrigerated sectors staying below 1%. ATRI President and COO Rebecca Brewster said that while it might be possibly getting better, “we’re not out of the woods yet."
With LTL rates at record highs, truckload contract rates still adjusting upward, and diesel prices swinging, shippers need a partner that can help control costs without sacrificing service. VCPB’s LTL solutions help you navigate record pricing, our over-the-road network keeps truckload freight moving as contract rates adjust, and our intermodal solutions give you a cost-effective option for moving volume when fuel prices swing.
When you work with VCPB, you can always count on:
VCPB Transportation
600 Meadowlands Pkwy Secaucus, NJ 07094
(201) 770-0111
