At the midyear point, the freight industry stands at a crossroads. Stakeholders are pressed by tariff turbulence, economic drag, and capacity realignment on different sides. A temporary reprieve from high tariffs has stirred a rush of summer imports, but experts expect it to be a short-lived surge shadowed by persistent caution in the manufacturing and consumer markets.
From shifting import forecasts to diverging rate paths in LTL and truckload, stakeholders are recalibrating strategies almost daily. Chassis providers are racing to preempt bottlenecks, while the financial results of North America’s top carriers reflect a sector still under pressure.
In this edition of our newsletter, we are breaking down five key developments shaping U.S. logistics performance.
U.S. retailers revised summer import forecasts sharply upward, driven by temporary pauses on reciprocal and China-specific tariffs. The NRF and Hackett Associates’ June Global Port Tracker projected July imports to reach 2.13 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), up 20.3% from May’s estimate but still below July 2024 volumes.
August expectations also rose 8.8%. Importers are expediting shipments before the July 9 and August 14 tariff deadlines. June volumes are also expected to climb 17.5% to 2.01 million TEUs. Jonathan Gold of the NRF noted the urgency in moving cargo early.
However, the surge is expected to fade by fall, with September and October volumes forecast to fall 21.6% and 20% year over year, respectively, amid trade turbulence and policy uncertainty.
U.S. LTL rates have remained stable at a record high, with the BLS Producer Price Index flat at 259 from February through April. Rates are up 12.1% since Yellow’s 2023 bankruptcy, which removed key capacity. April’s LTL pricing was 4.9% higher year over year.
First-quarter contract renewals contributed to the sustained peak. In contrast, truckload pricing continues to slide, with the truckload PPI down 2.6% since January and nearly 25% off its 2022 peak. Capacity imbalance remains stark: While the LTL sector added just 83 terminals in 2024, truckload carrier counts are still 37% above 2019 levels.
So far, tariff volatility has not disrupted LTL pricing, which remains buoyed by tight market conditions.
America’s top three chassis providers — TRAC Intermodal, DCLI, and FlexiVan — are reactivating tens of thousands of idle units to prevent inland shortage during the summer cargo influx. Equipment is being repositioned to inland hubs like Memphis and Chicago, with time-intensive inspections and repairs underway.
TRAC COO Val Noel likened the situation to a tsunami, emphasizing preparedness. DCLI preserved repair staffing levels during downturns to avoid labor shortages, and FlexiVan is focusing resources on its private pool for Ocean Network Express. Forecasting tools like the DOT’s FLOW initiative are enabling more precise deployment.
At the same time, the rise of private chassis fleets and grounded container strategies by railroads is easing pressure on shared pools.
Truckload carriers continue to operate in a tepid demand environment worsened by trade policy uncertainty. Uber Freight’s Q2 outlook indicates that a 10% tariff could suppress truckload volumes by 2%, with 18-28% tariffs threatening a 6% drop. May cargo at the Port of Los Angeles fell 5% year over year and 19% from April.
Dean Croke of DAT said reefer carriers are under sustained pressure, with oversupply and delayed produce harvests dragging spot rates below 2023 levels. Manufacturing headwinds persist: ISM’s PMI dropped to 48.5 in May, marking the third consecutive month of contraction.
Croke warned of ongoing financial strain in a market still mired in a freight recession dating back to 2022.
The 2025 Transport Topics Top 100 For-Hire Carriers list reflects a split freight economy. Despite some strategic expansions, roughly 75% of companies reporting net income saw profits fall in 2024. Tariffs have stalled investments and created an atmosphere of uncertainty.
Less-than-truckload carriers performed better than truckload firms, with Estes Express climbing to No. 8 on $5.8 billion in revenue. M&A activity remained active: Knight-Swift expanded its LTL reach by acquiring DHE, while Schneider bought Cowan Systems for $390 million.
DB Schenker’s acquisition by DSV and FedEx’s plan to spin off FedEx Freight also highlight shifting global logistics strategies amid ongoing domestic volatility.
We understand that tariffs and trade wars have created an unstable environment. However, we can promise you a few things amid this turbulent period. When you call, we answer — no matter the hour. We respond when you have urgent shipping needs — no matter the challenge.
When you work with VCPB, you can always count on:
VCPB Transportation
600 Meadowlands Pkwy Secaucus, NJ 07094
(201) 770-0111
