From carriers tightening capacity to cargo theft rings exploiting digital loopholes, the road ahead is neither stable nor smooth for U.S. supply chains. Retailers braced for holiday uncertainty by front-loading goods, yet container volumes are dropping off a cliff. Meanwhile, beef prices are skyrocketing — not just due to drought, but because of stacked tariffs and shrinking herds.
This month’s VCBP newsletter walks through five critical pressure points, from trucking enforcement to ranch economics, and reveals how deeply politics, regulation, and organized crime are entangled with logistics performance.
The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index fell to 72.4% in Q3 — its lowest since the 2008-09 recession. Large U.S. truckload carriers are scaling back their fleets to match sluggish freight demand and protect margins. Some of them are bracing for continued softness in Q4, exacerbated by the federal shutdown and customer bankruptcies.
Covenant Logistics anticipates better years ahead, but much of the industry is watching for impacts from stricter rules on non-domiciled and non-English-speaking drivers. Enforcement of English language proficiency requirements is already removing 300-400 drivers weekly, mostly near the Texas-Mexico border.
Tensions between California and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) are escalating after the revocation of 17,000 non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) issued to immigrant drivers. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy claims the licenses were issued illegally, while California’s governor insists they were valid under state law and involved legally authorized workers.
The revocations came amid stricter federal rules requiring English language proficiency and visa-specific status for CDL renewals, rules that could affect up to 194,000 drivers nationwide. In response to California’s defiance, the DOT has withheld over $40 million in highway safety funding.
Cargo theft in the U.S. is accelerating in scale and sophistication, driven by transnational crime rings using insider knowledge and digital tools. Speaking at ATA’s 2025 Management Conference, economist Bob Costello and CEO Chris Spear revealed that these criminal groups are rerouting shipments through fake drop sites and spoofed load boards.
The American Transportation Research Institute estimated losses between $1.8 billion and $6.6 billion in 2023. And strategic thefts rose from 9% to 25% over the past year. One Florida case alone resulted in $776,000 in damages due to stolen electronic control modules.
U.S. ports are seeing steep declines in container volume, but store shelves remain stocked thanks to early holiday shipments prompted by tariff uncertainty. September imports hit 2.1 million TEUs, down 9.3% from August. Projections show further declines through December, with the index expected to reach its lowest level since March 2023.
Despite that, the National Retail Federation expects 2025 holiday sales to top $1 trillion, up 3.7%-4.2%. Retailers mitigated inflation pressures by front-loading goods and absorbing tariff costs. But Hackett Associates projects a deeper import slowdown in early 2026 due to unstable U.S.-China trade policy.
Beef prices in the U.S. are climbing sharply, driven by a layered crisis of drought, a shrinking cattle herd, and trade policy. Imports from Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, and Uruguay have dropped following tariff hikes, with Brazilian beef alone now facing a 76.4% rate.
The combination of fewer imports and the U.S. herd at a 75-year low has driven prices up 12%-18% year over year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Feed and equipment costs have also surged due to duties on fertilizers, tractors, and steel. Ranchers like James Clement have warned that rebuilding herds isn’t quick — it takes years and consistent conditions.
We understand that tariffs and trade wars have created an unstable environment. However, we can promise you a few things amid this turbulent period. When you call, we answer. No matter the hour. We respond when you have urgent shipping needs. No matter the challenge.
When you work with VCPB, you can always count on:
VCPB Transportation
600 Meadowlands Pkwy Secaucus, NJ 07094
(201) 770-0111
