After years of weak returns, truckload pricing is on the rise. Amazon is opening its LTL network to outside shippers, while retailers are pulling imports forward to avoid exposure to tariffs and fuel surcharges. Federal policy is also edging closer to the container itself with a proposed prescreening program intended to relieve port delays.
The freight market is recovering due to tighter supply, stricter enforcement, and earlier planning rather than a sudden surge in freight demand. Carriers with scale, assets, and strong safety records are better positioned to gain more market share. As for shippers, they now have less room for procrastination or late decisions.
Tighter enforcement removed noncompliant drivers and weak carriers from the market. But truckload pricing is entering a longer upcycle. Fleet operating costs have risen 30-50% in the past five years, even as rates have declined, leaving a good chunk of the industry unable to reinvest, according to J.B. Hunt’s Spencer Frazier.
Bid expectations have already shifted from low- to mid-single-digit gains to mid- to high-single-digit increases, with some shippers seeing double-digit increases. Contract routing guides are also getting weaker, resulting in more mini-bids and full rebids.
After nearly four years of weak pricing and carrier failures, trucking executives say the freight downturn is over. The Logistics Managers’ Index registered its biggest rise in transportation prices in May, the biggest in the 10-year history of the survey. Dry van spot rates, excluding fuel, for the week ending June 5, were up approximately 52% year over year.
With bankruptcies, rising costs, and tighter driver rules taking trucks out of the market, excess capacity from the pandemic era has evaporated. Estes is looking to grow its equipment and driver base. According to Old Dominion, revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel, increased 5.4%. While manufacturing is growing and data centers are being built, weak consumer demand and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes could temper the speed of the recovery.
The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates expect June imports to be up 14.3% from a year ago, with high volumes likely to continue through July before tapering off as inflation and consumer uncertainty weigh on demand. Trans-Pacific shippers are booking earlier and stretching the usual two-week planning cycle to five weeks.
Best Buy and Sportsman’s Warehouse have already expedited some shipments to reduce tariff exposure. Meanwhile, other companies are revising inland transport and delivery plans as earlier imports arrive. Carriers are supporting higher prices with blank sailings, general rate increases, and peak season surcharges after a tough first quarter. The result has been an earlier, but maybe shorter, peak season.
The U.S. Department of Transportation has announced the American Supply Chain Sovereignty Initiative, a proposed program that would prescreen import containers and link ports, carriers, and retailers through a shared dashboard.
In 2025, about 52 million containers arrived at U.S. ports, but Customs and Border Protection physically inspected only 3% to 5% of them, with importers paying for the inspections. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy argued that faster cargo processing could reduce delays and costs. But he wouldn’t say how much the program would cost. The proposal would build on the Freight Logistics Optimization Works program and the National Freight Strategic Plan developed under the Biden administration.
For seven years, Amazon has served marketplace sellers, and now it’s growing its less-than-truckload service to serve businesses across the country. It is currently expanding into an industry in which FedEx Freight, Old Dominion, and Saia each operate 200 to 300 terminals, roughly 10 times Amazon’s current LTL footprint.
Amazon plans to close that gap with its freight network and technology. The service offers same-day or next-day pickup, live GPS tracking, automated delivery appointments, electronic proof of delivery, and a shared drop-trailer pool for partial and full loads. Shippers can also negotiate contract pricing or purchase spot capacity through an online portal. That combination gives Amazon an asset-backed operation that has the flexibility of a brokerage model.
We understand that tariffs and trade wars have created an unstable environment. However, we can promise you a few things amid this turbulent period. When you call, we answer. No matter the hour. We respond when you have urgent shipping needs. No matter the challenge.
When you work with VCPB, you can always count on:
VCPB Transportation
600 Meadowlands Pkwy Secaucus, NJ 07094
(201) 770-0111
